NBOA Housing Provider Survey
Survey examining COVID-19 pandemic impacts on Chicago’s rental housing market, documenting rent collection challenges, vacancy patterns, rental arrearages, operational stress, and anticipated 2022 market adjustments among housing providers representing approximately 21,000 rental units across Chicago neighborhoods.
Respondent Profile
Survey respondents collectively own and manage approximately 21,000 rental housing units throughout the Chicago metropolitan area. Consistent with the NBOA’s mission to represent neighborhood housing providers, the respondent pool predominantly consists of small to medium-sized property owners and managers who form the foundation of Chicago’s neighborhood rental housing stock.
Portfolio Size Distribution
Residential Properties Owned or Managed
| Property Count Range | Percentage of Respondents |
|---|---|
| 1-5 properties | 45% |
| 6-10 properties | 25% |
| 11-20 properties | 8% |
| 21-50 properties | 14% |
| Greater than 50 properties | 8% |
Residential Units Owned or Managed
| Unit Count Range | Percentage of Respondents |
|---|---|
| 0-20 units | 39% |
| 21-50 units | 26% |
| 51-100 units | 10% |
| 101-250 units | 10% |
| 251-500 units | 7% |
| 501-1,000 units | 5% |
| Greater than 1,000 units | 4% |
Small-scale operators dominate the survey sample: Nearly three-quarters (74%) of respondents own or manage 100 units or fewer, and 96% are property owners rather than third-party management companies. This demographic represents the individual landlords and small businesses that provide the majority of Chicago’s neighborhood rental housing.
Geographic Distribution
Survey respondents own and manage properties across all Chicago neighborhoods and suburban areas, with the highest concentration on the North Side and in North/Northwest neighborhoods.
| Chicago Area | Percentage of Respondents |
|---|---|
| City North | 48% |
| City Northwest | 26% |
| City South | 21% |
| City West | 16% |
| Suburban North | 14% |
| Suburban Northwest | 10% |
| Suburban West | 9% |
| City Southwest | 9% |
| Suburban Southwest | 8% |
| Suburban South | 8% |
| City Downtown | 5% |
Note: Respondents were allowed to select multiple neighborhoods, so percentages sum to more than 100%.
Property Type Composition
Survey respondents predominantly own small to medium-sized residential buildings, with the majority operating portfolios of single-family homes and 2-4 unit properties typical of Chicago’s neighborhood housing stock.
Portfolio composition reflects neighborhood housing character: Among respondents owning single-family homes, 69% own 1-5 properties. Among those with 2-4 unit buildings, 82% own 1-5 properties. This pattern demonstrates the small-scale, locally-focused nature of Chicago’s neighborhood housing provider community.
Rent Collections
January 2022 rent collection data reveals substantial ongoing COVID-19 pandemic impacts on Chicago’s rental housing market, with 42% of respondents collecting 95% or less of expected rent and 21% experiencing collection rates below 85%—levels that typically result in negative cash flow and mounting financial stress.
COVID-19 Collection Crisis
42% of respondents collected 95% or less of January rent — indicating that nearly half of Chicago housing providers continue experiencing significant collection shortfalls two years into the pandemic.
21% collected 85% or less — collection rates at these levels typically result in monthly operating losses, as property expenses (mortgages, taxes, insurance, utilities, maintenance) generally consume 75-85% of gross rental income.
Overall Collection Performance
| January 2022 Collection Rate | Percentage of Respondents |
|---|---|
| Greater than 95% collected | 58% |
| 91%-95% collected | 13% |
| 86%-90% collected | 7% |
| 76%-85% collected | 8% |
| 0%-75% collected | 13% |
| Don’t know | 1% |
One in five housing providers facing monthly losses: The 21% of respondents reporting collection rates of 85% or less are likely losing money each month, as typical property operating expenses consume 75-85% of gross rental income before accounting for capital improvements, vacancy reserves, or owner compensation.
Geographic Collection Disparities
North Side & Suburban North
South & West Sides
5-times higher severe collection challenges on South and West Sides: Properties on Chicago’s South and West Sides are five times more likely to report collection rates below 75% compared to North Side properties (21% vs 4%), indicating dramatically higher foreclosure risk and property abandonment potential in these neighborhoods.
Detailed Collection Rate Comparison
| Collection Rate | North Side & Suburban North | South & West Sides |
|---|---|---|
| Greater than 95% | 66% | 47% |
| 91%-95% | 15% | 11% |
| 86%-90% | 8% | 11% |
| 76%-85% | 8% | 9% |
| 0%-75% | 4% | 21% |
| Don’t know | 0% | 2% |
Geographic Area Definitions
North Side & Suburban North: City Downtown, City North, City Northwest, Suburban North, Suburban Northwest
South & West Sides: City South, City Southwest, City West, Suburban South, Suburban Southwest, Suburban West
Rental Arrearages
Accumulated rental arrearages—unpaid back rent owed by current and former tenants—represent a substantial financial burden for Chicago housing providers. Survey data reveals that two-thirds of respondents face potential losses of 1% or more of annual gross income if current arrearages must be written off.
Annual Gross Income At Risk
Respondents estimated the percentage of annual gross income they would lose if all current arrearages (unpaid back rent) had to be written off as uncollectible.
| Percentage of Annual Gross Income at Risk | Percentage of Respondents |
|---|---|
| No arrearages / Not applicable | 33% |
| 1%-5% of annual income | 30% |
| 6%-10% of annual income | 11% |
| 11%-20% of annual income | 10% |
| 21%-30% of annual income | 3% |
| Greater than 30% of annual income | 7% |
| Don’t know | 5% |
67% face potential arrearage losses: Two-thirds of survey respondents report current arrearages that, if written off, would result in losses ranging from 1% to over 30% of annual gross income. For small housing providers operating on thin margins (typically 10-20% net operating income), these losses represent catastrophic financial exposure.
Partial and Non-Payment Patterns
Beyond complete non-payment, many tenants made partial rent payments in January 2022, creating ongoing collection challenges and administrative burden for housing providers.
Geographic Comparison of Payment Challenges
| Tenant Payment Status (January 2022) | North Side | South & West Sides |
|---|---|---|
| Tenants Who Paid Partial Rent | ||
| 0% to 5% of tenants paid partial rent | 76% | 66% |
| 6% to 10% paid partial rent | 10% | 13% |
| 11% to 20% paid partial rent | 3% | 9% |
| Greater than 30% paid partial rent | 6% | 8% |
| Tenants Who Paid No Rent | ||
| 0% to 5% of tenants paid no rent | 79% | 71% |
| 6% to 10% paid no rent | 12% | 12% |
| 11% to 20% paid no rent | 5% | 7% |
| Greater than 30% paid no rent | 0% | 5% |
Partial payments compound collection challenges: While complete non-payment is relatively uncommon (most respondents report 0-5% of tenants paying no rent), partial payments create ongoing administrative burden, complicate eviction proceedings under Chicago’s rental ordinances, and gradually accumulate into substantial arrearages.
Vacancy Trends
Vacancy rates demonstrate significant improvement from pandemic peaks, with 47% of respondents reporting zero vacant units in January 2022—the highest level since NBOA began tracking this metric in September 2020. This recovery indicates sustained rental housing demand despite ongoing collection challenges.
Vacancy Recovery Timeline
Historical vacancy data from September 2020 through January 2022 shows steady improvement in occupancy rates across Chicago’s rental housing market.
| Vacancy Level | Sept 2020 | Dec 2020 | Mar 2021 | Jun 2021 | Sept 2021 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No vacant units | 32% | 33% | 34% | 31% | 39% | 47% |
| 1%-5% vacant | 26% | 27% | 30% | 33% | 31% | 36% |
| 6%-10% vacant | 21% | 19% | 16% | 14% | 14% | 10% |
| 11%-25% vacant | 13% | 16% | 15% | 14% | 9% | 5% |
| 26%-50% vacant | 5% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 0% |
| 51%-75% vacant | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Greater than 75% vacant | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 2% |
Vacancy rates at 18-month low: The 47% of respondents reporting zero vacant units in January 2022 represents the highest full-occupancy rate since NBOA began tracking this metric, while the combined 83% reporting 0-5% vacancy demonstrates strong sustained demand for rental housing across Chicago neighborhoods.
Geographic Vacancy Patterns
North Side & Suburban North
South & West Sides
Detailed Vacancy Comparison by Geography
| Vacancy Range | North Side & Suburban North | South & West Sides |
|---|---|---|
| No vacant units | 51% | 37% |
| 1%-5% vacant | 33% | 43% |
| 6%-10% vacant | 11% | 10% |
| 11%-25% vacant | 5% | 4% |
| 26%-50% vacant | 0% | 0% |
| 51%-75% vacant | 0% | 1% |
| Greater than 75% vacant | 0% | 0% |
| Don’t know | 0% | 3% |
Vacancy vs. Collection Disconnect
The disconnect between low vacancy rates and poor collection performance—particularly on the South and West Sides—indicates that rental housing demand remains strong, but tenant financial challenges limit ability to consistently pay rent. This pattern suggests affordability issues stem from income limitations rather than excess housing supply.
COVID-19 Operational Impacts
Housing providers reported how COVID-19 rental market conditions and collection challenges would affect their 2022 property operations. The results reveal substantial anticipated reductions in capital investment, maintenance spending, and staffing—with potential cascading effects on housing quality and neighborhood conditions.
Operational Stress and Disinvestment
42% will make fewer capital improvements — reductions in major building system upgrades, unit renovations, and property improvements could accelerate housing deterioration.
27% will cut repairs and maintenance budgets — deferred routine maintenance compounds over time, leading to more expensive emergency repairs and reduced property conditions.
16% forced to make personnel cuts — reduced staffing limits responsiveness to tenant needs and building maintenance issues.
Anticipated 2022 Operational Adjustments
Respondents selected all operational changes they anticipated making in 2022 in response to current rental market conditions and collection challenges. Multiple responses were allowed.
| Anticipated Operational Change | Percentage of Respondents |
|---|---|
| I will make fewer capital improvements | 42% |
| No effect on operations | 32% |
| I will cut my repairs & maintenance budget | 27% |
| I will be forced to make personnel cuts | 16% |
| I plan to make more capital improvements | 15% |
| Don’t know | 10% |
| I plan to increase my repairs & maintenance budget | 8% |
| I don’t expect to pay my property taxes on time or in full | 6% |
| I plan to hire more staff | 6% |
| I don’t expect to pay my mortgage on time or in full | 2% |
Disinvestment threatens housing quality: The combination of reduced capital improvements (42%), cut maintenance budgets (27%), and personnel reductions (16%) creates conditions for accelerated housing deterioration. When compounded across multiple properties in concentrated neighborhoods, this pattern risks neighborhood-wide decline in housing quality and property values.
Property Tax and Mortgage Payment Stress
While relatively few respondents anticipate defaulting on property taxes (6%) or mortgage payments (2%), these figures nonetheless indicate that dozens of properties among the survey sample face potential tax lien or foreclosure proceedings—with concentrated geographic impacts in neighborhoods already experiencing high collection challenges.
Foreclosure Risk Cascade
Properties unable to pay property taxes or mortgages on time face tax lien sales or foreclosure proceedings. In neighborhoods with concentrated financial distress—particularly South and West Side areas where 21% of respondents report collection rates below 75%—this cascade from collection challenges to property abandonment threatens neighborhood stability and housing availability.
2022 Projections
Survey respondents anticipate substantial rent increases and operating cost growth in 2022, driven by accumulated arrearages, rising property expenses, and efforts to restore financial stability following two years of pandemic-era collection challenges.
Anticipated Rent Increases
Anticipated 2022 Rent Increases (Renewals and New Leases)
| Anticipated Rent Increase Range | Percentage of Respondents |
|---|---|
| 1% to 2% increase | 29% |
| 3% to 4% increase | 34% |
| 5% to 6% increase | 15% |
| 7% to 8% increase | 4% |
| Increase by 9% or more | 5% |
| Don’t know | 9% |
| Expect rents to decrease | 4% |
Rent increases driven by cost recovery and expense growth: The 58% of respondents anticipating rent increases of 3% or more reflect efforts to offset accumulated arrearages, cover rising operating expenses, and restore financial stability after two years of pandemic-era collection challenges. These increases may also reflect market-rate adjustments in neighborhoods where rents remained flat or declined during 2020-2021.
Geographic Comparison of Anticipated Rent Increases
| Anticipated Rent Increase | North Side & Suburban North | South & West Sides |
|---|---|---|
| 1% to 2% increase | 28% | 27% |
| 3% to 4% increase | 41% | 27% |
| 5% to 6% increase | 16% | 15% |
| 7% to 8% increase | 2% | 7% |
| 9% or more increase | 2% | 10% |
| Don’t know | 9% | 4% |
| Expect decrease | 2% | 9% |
Approximately 61% of North Side respondents and 60% of South/West Side respondents anticipate raising rents by 3% or more in 2022, indicating similar rent growth expectations across geographic areas despite dramatic differences in collection performance.
Anticipated Operating Cost Increases
An overwhelming 93% of respondents expect operating cost increases in 2022, driven by rising property taxes, insurance premiums, utility costs, maintenance expenses, and labor costs.
| Anticipated Operating Cost Increase Range | Percentage of Respondents |
|---|---|
| 1% to 3% increase | 7% |
| 4% to 6% increase | 31% |
| 7% to 9% increase | 20% |
| 10% to 12% increase | 22% |
| 13% or more increase | 12% |
| Costs remain the same | 3% |
| Costs will decrease | 1% |
| Don’t know | 4% |
Operating cost increases outpace anticipated rent growth: While 58% anticipate raising rents by 3% or more, 85% expect operating cost increases of 4% or more—creating a scissors effect where expense growth outstrips revenue growth. For properties already experiencing collection shortfalls, this cost-revenue gap compounds financial stress and accelerates disinvestment.
Geographic Comparison of Operating Cost Projections
| Operating Cost Increase | North Side & Suburban North | South & West Sides |
|---|---|---|
| 1% to 3% increase | 6% | 6% |
| 4% to 6% increase | 33% | 24% |
| 7% to 9% increase | 23% | 22% |
| 10% to 12% increase | 19% | 27% |
| 13% or more increase | 11% | 13% |
| Remain the same | 3% | 3% |
| Will decrease | 1% | 1% |
| Don’t know | 3% | 4% |
South and West Side providers anticipate slightly higher operating cost increases than North Side providers, with 27% projecting 10-12% cost growth compared to 19% on the North Side—further compounding the financial challenges in neighborhoods already experiencing lower collection rates.
Survey Conclusions
The February 2022 NBOA Housing Provider Survey documents ongoing COVID-19 pandemic impacts on Chicago’s rental housing market two years after the crisis began. While vacancy rates have recovered to 18-month lows—with 47% reporting zero vacant units and 83% at 0-5% vacancy—collection challenges persist, particularly in South and West Side neighborhoods.
Collection crisis continues: Forty-two percent of housing providers collected 95% or less of January rent, with 21% experiencing collection rates below 85%—levels that typically result in monthly operating losses. These challenges are geographically concentrated: South and West Side properties are five times more likely to report severe collection challenges (0-75% collection rates) compared to North Side properties (21% vs 4%).
Financial stress drives disinvestment: COVID-19 collection challenges are forcing operational cutbacks across the rental housing sector. Forty-two percent of respondents will make fewer capital improvements, 27% will cut maintenance budgets, and 16% will be forced to make personnel cuts. This pattern of deferred investment and reduced maintenance threatens housing quality deterioration, particularly in neighborhoods already experiencing the most severe collection challenges.
Cost-revenue scissors effect: While 58% of providers anticipate raising rents by 3% or more in 2022, 93% expect operating cost increases, with 85% projecting cost growth of 4% or more. For properties already experiencing collection shortfalls and accumulated arrearages, this gap between revenue growth and expense growth compounds financial stress and accelerates the disinvestment cycle.
Geographic disparities persist: The dramatic differences in collection performance between North Side and South/West Side properties (66% vs 47% achieving >95% collection rates) reflect broader economic and employment disparities that predate COVID-19 but have been exacerbated by pandemic-era economic disruption. These geographic patterns create neighborhood-level foreclosure and abandonment risk that threatens housing stability in vulnerable communities.
The survey reveals a rental housing sector experiencing strong demand (low vacancies) but mounting financial stress (poor collections, rising costs, deferred investment). Small-scale housing providers—who represent 74% of respondents owning 100 units or fewer—lack the financial reserves to absorb prolonged collection shortfalls, raising concerns about property tax defaults, foreclosures, and neighborhood disinvestment in communities least able to withstand further economic disruption.